Monday - July 28, 2003
Iraqi Occupation: How Long Will it Last?
As we settle into an occupation of the cradle of
civilization, our troops are coming under frequent ambush and friendly Iraqis
and infrastructure are also being targeted. How long can we expect this to
continue? Why does it happen? The answer to the second question is the key to
the first.
Why are some Iraqis resisting our occupation to
the extent that they are using guerrilla tactics against us and against peaceful
Iraqis? It is because no one surrendered. We have destroyed the Ba'ath regime
but they never admitted that they were destroyed and they never called upon
their followers to submit. They simply stopped being in control and left their
people to decide for themselves whether to surrender or not. Those with the most
to lose, and those with the hottest tempers have not decided to submit and
without orders to submit they feel justified in continuing to
resist.
The end of the second world war
came about with Germany and Japan surrendering formally, robbing any resistors
of any hope of legitimacy to their resistance. If we did not drop two nuclear
weapons on Japan and instead invaded, then it is possible that we could have
destroyed all semblance of social order and political cohesiveness among our
enemy. The emperor may have been killed and the government's ability to control
the army destroyed. Without orders to surrender, many in the army would have
carried on the war until they were all killed. As evidence for this theory,
recall that on many of the islands we bypassed, and even on some we took in the
war, individual Japanese soldiers who were isolated and never received word of
the emperor's surrender continued fighting and resisting up to the
1970's!
By destroying Saddam Hussein's
ability to control his people before we controlled him, his people are at moral
liberty to decide individually whether to submit to us or not. Ironically, it
was the superb brilliance of our military success that has shattered Iraqi
political organization so completely that no internal authority was able to
re-establish itself in order to restore some semblance of social
order.
But this is not necessarily bad.
The only down side is that we will be faced with guerrilla fighting for some
time. My second question was, how long will this guerrilla fighting go on? My
prediction is that we can expect it to continue for two more generations, and it
will only end then if we systematically destroy the social standing at all
levels of those who resist. That is, all gangs, all established families, all
groupings of people have social organization. Powerful families in all societies
have power that reaches a long way. We must systematically punish, ridicule, and
reduce their power if they are not enthusiastic supporters of a new, democratic,
pro-western regime. We must kill the patriarchs of these clans and their heirs,
both blood and appointed. We must do everything we can to encourage new power
within the society that is centered on a pro-American
policy.
The Hatfields and McCoys just
signed an armistice recently over a family feud that has lasted over a hundred
years. Iraqi resistance will easily last at least that long unless we kill the
leaders of the resisting social circles and reduce their members to a
subservient status. We should not be queasy about this. They are the ones
enabling the murder of our soldiers and innocent Iraqis, and destruction of the
nation's wealth and oil industry. They are not blameless and until they are
gone, we can expect continued bloodshed.
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